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Cake day: June 7th, 2023

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  • Sort of yes, sort of no. This is one of those places where the US Federal system of government would be beneficial. For the most part, Homicide is a State crime. This means that the State where the crime occurred would have jurisdiction and The US President would not have the power to pardon for that crime. So, let’s say that Biden sends a private hitman (and not Seal Team 6, the FBI or whatever fevered dream part of the US Government Trump comes up with next) to kill Trump. Said hitman would be indicted in New York under New York law for the homicide. President Biden’s power to pardon would not be able to help the hitman. By contrast, New York Governor Kathy Hochul probably could (I can’t be arsed to look up the power of pardon in New York). Where this breaks down is in DC or other Federal land (e.g. military bases). Since those are Federal lands, the Federal Government would have jurisdiction and the President probably would have the power of pardon.






  • Unfortunately, yes. There have been a lot of efforts to shift the energy mix in the EU away from Russian oil and natural gas. But, the effort has been slow and has meant rising costs. Also, by removing Russian production from the supply side, prices will invariably increase. Ukraine does have to balance the damage that can do to foreign support, against their war aims. Personally, I think it’s pretty selfish of the EU and US to ask Ukraine not to strike those resources. It’s essentially the US/EU saying, “more of your people need to die, so we can save money.” It’s a really crappy thing to ask.



  • I mean, the US could do that, but it’s kinda pointless. Ukraine would just be buying them with money that the US Government gave them in the aid package. It would mean the US Treasury moving money from the “aid going to Ukraine” column to the “US DoD budget” column. Sure, some of the aid is structured as loans. However, the President has the power to forgive half of those loans by the end of the year and the next President will have the power to forgive the rest of those loans in 2026. Unless the war suddenly ends and Ukraine suddenly finds a shit-ton of money somewhere, those loans are just going to be forgiven. As there is just no way they will ever be paid back.


  • Handy Infographic from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO):
    .

    • Total Federal outlays: $6.1 Trillion
    • Federal Social Spending
      • Social Security: $1.3T
      • Medicare: $0.839T
      • Medicaid: $0.616T
      • Income Security Programs: $0.448T
      • Total Social Spending: $3.203T

    Math warning:

    (3.203T / $6.1T) * 100% = 52.5%  
    

    So, not quite the previous poster’s 55%, but pretty close. There is also an “Other” column which likely includes other social spending and may have gotten us to that number. But, it’s enough of a mixed bag, and way too much work, to try and pick it all out.

    While the US could certainly adjust it’s spending in a lot of good ways, the idea that the US spends “nothing” on social programs is provably false. These numbers also get weird and much harder to pin down when we look at State level taxes and spending. Many years ago, I dug into education spending in the US. And while Federal Education spending is a drop in the bucket, the actual number is pretty large, because it’s considered a State responsibility and each State spends large amounts of money on it.

    For example, my home State of Virginia budgets $29.9 Billion for “Health and Human Services” this Fiscal Year 2024 and $25.0 Billion for “Education”, those two line items eating up about 62% of the State budget.



  • US Federal Law does NOT require that bills only deal with a single issue. So, a single bill could send aid to Ukraine, outlaw hats and declare Tuesday, “puppy kicking day”. And that would be fully within the US Constitutional method for passing Federal laws. All that matters is that the exact same text is passed in both The House of Representatives and The Senate and is then signed by The President. There’s a whole bunch of other stuff around it (veto process, and filibuster), but the ELI5 version is both houses of Congress pass the same bill and the President signs it and thus it becomes US Federal Law.

    There will, of course, be a whole other process around the law being challenged in the Courts. ByteDance will undoubtedly challenge the TikTok ban in Court. And that will take years to fully wind it’s way through the system. And the courts may issue an injunction, preventing the law from being enforced, until the decision is made. Basically saying, “nope Federal Government, you cannot enforce this until we say so”. Personally, I would expect that in this case. So, don’t expect TikTok to leave the US any time soon. Note that, this can be done to part of a law (again, I would expect this) and not the whole law at once. So, this won’t imperil US aid to Ukraine, Israel or Taiwan. It just means that we’re likely to see the bounds of US Federal Government power tested a bit. Does the US Federal Government have the power to unilaterally kick a company out of the US? I’d bet on “yes”, especially with the ties to national security. But, I could easily lose that bet.


  • “This could have to do with the fact that many people do not want to be old, so they postpone the onset of old age,” said Wettstein

    Pretty much this. I used to think that 50 was old. Now that I’m approaching it and know people past that age, I’m not sure I like that definition any more. I also don’t “feel” old internally. Sure, my body isn’t what it used to be. But, I am still active and haven’t found myself limited in activities yet. Maybe that’s coming. But, I’m also trying not to wreck the time I have left by being too stupid with my body. And I think that’s where it’s less about “being old” than it is being “used up”. Sure, I did my share of stupid shit in my youth, we’re all young and dumb at some point. With a bit of luck, we all get older. Hopefully, you take a few precautions and get lucky during that stupid stuff and you don’t have a broken down body when you are older.

    There is also a matter of experience and perspective. The more shit you live through, the more you are able to put life experiences in perspective. It’s not only an age thing, being older usually means having lived through more things, but some folks get a lifetime of experience packed in a very short time due to bad circumstances. But, you start to recognize how little you can actually change or control in the world and start to accept the things you can’t change. And maybe that’s what “being old” is. You no longer have the vigor of youth nor the willingness to take on all the world’s problems. You’re more interested in just carving out a small patch of the world for yourself to live in as comfortably as you can. Sure, you may want a better world, and may even be roused to go do something about it from time to time. But you no longer believe that you can fix the world and really just want to warm your feet.



  • I was thinking that, too, but prior to the Sun becoming a white dwarf, the Sun is predicted to expand and swallow Earth (and Venus and Mercury), so the Sun’s mass will increase.

    A quick look has the mass of Mercury, Venus and Earth at close to 2 times the mass of Earth by itself. The Sun is around 330,000 times the mass of Earth. Soaking up all the inner planets means a change of less than 1/10th of 1% to the mass of the Sun. It’s not going to have an appreciable effect on it’s gravitational pull. The Sun already holds the vast majority of the mass of the solar system. With Jupiter holding most of the rest.

    Contrary to the headline, I suspect the only way the solar system will be destroyed by a white dwarf will be if one ends up whipping through our solar system. That would make for a very bad day.