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Cake day: June 27th, 2023

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  • Oligarchs. You’re missing oligarchs. The issue with Ukrainian agricultire is that a lot of it is a big, concentrated business with ties to Western capital on top of the traditional post-soviet oligarchy. This influences actions of both Ukrainian and EU politicians. The matters of imports or transit from Ukraine could be very well sorted out for the short term, but no one in power is really willing to do so.

    In the long term Polish agriculture faces a serious challenge from Ukraine when it gets more and more integrated with the west but it’s also not so binary in terms of who floods whom with produce.


  • I recommend everyone who hasn’t to look up the idea of “Potiomkin villages” (and subsequently Potiomkin anything eg. Potiomkin AI). In short: back in the tzarist days lower ranks put up mock villages which looked clean, modern and prosperous for higher ranks (and tzars) to see during visits. These mockups were essentially theatre decorations which hid the real state of the matters - dilapidated, dirty, poor and corrupt. For at least the last decade everything we saw of Russia was Potiomkin in nature - either to show off before the West or to hide corruption before own superiors.




  • That’s an amount of gear and people comparable to what a mid-sized European country could have and what a big European country could muster on short notice. It’s “only” a factor of 2 or 3 less than what Russia prepared for Ukraine at the beginning. It’s likely more than the combined forces of the Baltic states’ militaries and the NATO contingents stationed there.

    With a generous dose of optimism it is a force that would at least hold a conventional invasion at bay, if not defeat it via superior tech and sea support. It is a lot even in absolute terms, for an exercise it’s massive.





  • How about the same but about the world? If I gathered together all the places I visited, all documentaries I watched and all conversations I had it adds up to a mere glance at a myriad of different worlds. Every single small region in the world has more history and social and natural structures than any fantasy book. Living is like pulling individual pixels from a 4000000000000…000k photo which then changes every second.

    My brain explodes sometimes, but the idea of fractals helps. There is still immense value in perceiving this small collection of pixels as they build up to more and more connected structures.





  • Solidifying control over the Suez Canal - note that Saudis and Iran are (at least for now) not at their throats so some or other kind of cooperation for mutual trade profits may be in order. Their agreement was brokered by China, and the Chinese are very much interested in keeping Suez open. For the local powers the best case scenario is to make westerners GTFO. But the westerners won’t gtfo as long as their ships are under fire. It’s not unlikely that Houthi got “off the leash”, in such case the Iranian warship would paradixically sail there to discipline the attackers and reduce tensions. Howevwr obviously no one would admit it openly.

    A more conspirational take is that the heat in the ME, from Hamas to Houthi, is a bid to pressure the US into unpopular moves (stubborn support to Israel, actual violence on the seas, maybe some diplomatic fuckups) and produce an electoral advantage for Trump.



  • jantin@lemmy.worldtoscience@lemmy.worldCovid: It's That Bad
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    6 months ago

    To people who say it’s oVeRbLoWn CoNsPiRaCy

    Every viral disease may leave long term consequences, including the common flu. So can COVID. But we as a society got quite good at handling common flu. Also most people don’t contract it that often and if they do it’s a cause for medical attention. Meanwhile people are getting infected with COVID 3-4 times within 4 years and no one bats an eye besides “yeah, you’re not lucky”. So we were forced into pretending that going through a potentially heavily debilitating disease every 1-2 years is a perfectly normal thing and those who eventually “find out” are either just unfortunate or straight up lying.

    Sadly facts don’t care about our feelings and social setups. The endgame (that is max percentage of affected people) is at the level of 50% of the entire population with long covid at all times because the damage from subsequent infections accumulates. I just don’t remember if the timescale for this was 10 or 20 years of unmitigated spread of the virus (that is: what we have now)

    Meanwhile the new mutations are not really less severe. Only vaccinations make it so we’re not seeing death rates of 2020 until today. And sooner or later one or another mutated form will evade all immunity, wheteher it emerges tomorrow or in 5 years.

    Fun times ahead and, oh, remind me how well are health care systems faring right now when “the pandemic has ended”? Yeah, thought so. And these people are first in line to be affected so it won’t be getting better. If anythong COVID is the one topic where doomerism is perfectly justified as we don’t even try to pretend we’re doing something like we are with climate.