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Cake day: July 12th, 2023

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  • I wouldn’t say Trump won the debate, or that it strengthened his position.

    More the debate weakened Biden’s position strictly in regards to people’s view on his age and health.

    Trump still said some pretty awful things. He lied plenty, but some of those awful things he took credit for, and if Biden was on his game that night, he would have in the past at least, demolished Trump. Problem being he missed those openings, and sometimes changed topics mid sentence from a strong point, to topics that people see as Biden’s weak points. (like abortion -> immigration)

    Biden’s biggest enemy at this debate were unforced errors. Based on his performance at his rally the following day, and during past state of the unions when MTG and others are heckling him, he was clearly off his game, and I can only wonder what the debate would have been like if it was in the morning/afternoon instead of of late at night (or some other condition that got him back on his game).

    It’s great his performance improved so much the next day, but that won’t be seen by many people. The debate was seen by millions, including many that normally wouldn’t be reached. This was his opportunity, and he sort of blew it. Reaching those people in another form with the modern media environment and media consumption will be difficult.

    If Biden continues to run, those who consider abortion, democracy/avoiding fascism, or freedom a top issue, will still vote for him. I will still vote for him.

    If he steps down, and Gavin Newsom steps in as the democratic candidate, I’ll vote for him. (granted he isn’t part of the Primary, and there are pledged delegates for others, but those people have either already dropped out, or would get crushed by Trump).










  • I keep hearing ‘sanctions arent working’.

    And every now and then I see things about them working; it’s almost like sanctions are a long game that don’t immediately show all the results in want within 3 months, and you need to keep them up long term. That said, of course when some don’t comply with those sanctions, it will permanently alter the landscape as the sanctioned try to work around them. Russia’s movement toward the Yuan, and reliance on China and N. Korea are not going to be undone anytime soon, if ever.

    Pre-Ukrainian invasion, 1 USD was ~78 Russian Rubles. Now, that 1 USD is valued at 92 Rubles. After the start of the war, the Ruble lost a lot of value immediately, but appears to had gained value for a few months, and has steadily decreased in value as the sanctions drag on, and seem to have semi-stablized at a much lower value than going into the war. As a generalization, it appears looking back to 2003 (max on the chart i’m looking at), as Putin’s leadership drags on, the Ruble has steadily decreased in value (in 2003, it only took about 30 Ruble to value 1 USD). Looking at other major economic powers in the world is like looking at an inverse chart, where their currencies have increased in value against the USD consistently.






  • We are talking about two very different things.

    The reply I responded to was about student debt forgiveness. Forgiveness does not equal payment suspension.

    Yes, his post was threaded a couple down from yours, but neither my post, nor the post I responded to mentioned payment suspension. Your reply should probably be up a post or two.

    Trump and republicans of course want the people to pay every penny, plus interest of student debt. Biden kept loan payment suspensions up for years, which is far longer than I expected. Biden is getting debt forgiveness to the people, and a large number of them, and it is making a difference. I don’t think anyone thought he would accomplish a fraction of what he has gotten done; I can only imagine what he can get done if people give the Dems a majority in the Senate and House.

    With the republicans trying to shutdown the government for their political circus, Biden has done a good job of picking his battles, and making them look like fools. It’s clear the current Republican party is incapable of governing.


  • Biden’s biggest problems are:

    -he is old (which, yeah, obviously), and the media (both sides) does nothing but talk about how Biden is old. - but starting with the State of the Union, he is showing that he is mentally still there, and plenty capable of holding office.

    -The media just loves Trump. he gets views, so they won’t stop talking about him. They don’t give Trump the same kind of scrutiny they do any other politician.

    -Biden has a Gaza problem - if Gaza wasn’t an active issue, he’d probably be doing a lot better. He has spent so long ensuring Israel receives the support it needs to continue to exist in the middle east, and they have a place after the Holocaust, that he just can’t adjust to the horrible crimes their government are committing. I understand he will never not supply their Iron Dome and other defensive measures, but that doesn’t mean he cant restrict Israeli weapon sales to just that.

    -he doesn’t talk about his accomplishments in office, and the media doesn’t cover it, so the general populace doesn’t think he has done anything. He has done plenty - in the general election campaign, they are starting to advertise these things.

    People still don’t know that he continued backing Rail workers helped get them a deal, they just remember he kept the supply chain open.

    Many student loans have been forgiven. He can’t do forgiveness as broadly as he’d like, the GOP is fighting him on that, but he continues to fight for it and is getting more. My own mother is in her 60s and has another 10+ years on her student loan - but I am hopeful his student loan forgiveness will reach her - she has applied and right now it is just a waiting game (information over the past year has been very confusing regarding what to do and when).

    I only ever hear the media talking about the negative aspects of Biden, so of course he is going to lose supporters. I just happen to follow political news more closely than the average person, so I am aware of the positive things he has done as well. Hopefully he gets the message out; Trump was awful, but he isn’t losing support - people staying home and skipping this vote because Biden isn’t ideal, is how we get Trump back in office.


  • When he was the senator, he pushed forward a lot of bad policies we are stuck with to this day. Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act and Anti-Drug Abuse Act are only a couple of bad laws he’s helped advance while in the Senate.

    His age is not of concern for me either. I’ll vote for him, because the alternative is Trump. But if the country weren’t under the threat of MAGA, Fascism, Nazis, and white/Christian Nationalists, and there were other reasonable options, I probably would vote for someone else.


  • I did watch the state of the union address, and Biden did a wonderful job overall.

    There were a few word stumbles, and his stutter came out at a point; but I know I couldn’t give an hour long plus speech, and not stumble several times. There was one spot he stopped mid-sentence to respond to a heckle, which will probably be clipped, but I cant remember the exact words.

    Republicans need to learn to just shut up during his speeches and not heckle. He is on the ball, and at his best when responding to their heckling, it makes him look good, and he gets concessions out of them every time.

    Gaza was probably the toughest segment he tackled in the SOTU; primarily that he repeated several things I’ve heard to be false, but may well be stuff that either stuck in his memory hard, or the US intelligence community has more information than the media I’ve seen, and could be accurate.

    Overall, he did look energetic, intelligent, and delivered on a lot of the messaging for what his office had helped accomplish, that people generally don’t hear about.

    If your issue with Biden is his age, or you think his office hasn’t done much of anything, I suggest you watch. If your issue with him is Gaza… likely nothing he does is going to placate you, and this address won’t change that. He clearly is for a two state system, and not anti-Palestinian, but also is anti-Hamas, and is well aware of Hamas tactics of blending in with civilians, and using them as a shield (which isn’t new, it has been how they operate for a long time prior to the current conflict).



  • I would also have concerns of if congress only requires 50% of the vote or not, but as things stand, we at least have enough who support NATO and view Russia as an adversary, that it is unlikely.

    But house republicans have proven over and over they are weak. They cave to pressure on Trump when he isn’t even president.

    To use one of Trumps phrases, Republicans got a ‘sweetheart deal’ on immigration and the border, and they gave it up over pressure from Trump to not fix the border issue if he isn’t in office. Every day the border crisis continues is on Trump, and republicans hands (I want to say house, but even the Senate caved to him).